Cove & Crunch

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The first time I saw Wall Street, I was a tourist, and mostly what I remember is being cold. Towers on both sides, and wind coming off the harbor like a knife, funneling through streets so narrow and crooked they felt less like streets than like hallways cut between buildings. Our guide herded us to the Charging Bull, where I got my photo taken alongside four or five strangers I'd never see again, and then we squeezed back out through the crowd and boarded the ferry to the Statue of Liberty. What I took away was a vague impression that I had now Been To the world's financial center, without the faintest idea what that meant — and then the boat got going and the wind finished me off.

I worked in New York for years before moving to the Bay Area. If I were showing a friend around the Financial District today — assuming they were as clueless about money as I once was — I know exactly where I'd start: the Museum of American Finance. Come up out of the Wall Street subway station, turn the corner, and it's right there. Nearly every famous building and landmark in the surrounding blocks gets explained inside.

So why did New York become the financial capital of the world? A lot of the concepts and history in that museum point toward one answer: the magic of belief.

The First Supper

My favorite exhibit in the whole place is a panel called The First Supper.

It's about the birth of the credit card — the ultimate shopping weapon — right here in New York. And it's told as a sweet little story about love and food: in 1950, a couple in New York paid for dinner at a restaurant called Major's Cabin Grill using something called a Diners' Club card. With it, you could borrow against your own good name to cover things you couldn't otherwise afford in that moment.

These days, opening a credit card in the U.S. usually comes with a fat sign-up bonus you can convert into cash or spending, plus an introductory 0% APR for a year or two — after which the rate jumps to something around 20%. Used well, the basic version gets you a couple of free round-trip tickets home, or several nights in a nice hotel for nothing. Used cleverly, that 0% window can bridge a small business through a temporary cash crunch.

The most extreme example I've heard came from Planet Money (a podcast I'd recommend — every episode digs into something genuinely interesting about the economy). One episode interviewed an immigrant woman applying for a government assistance program. Her husband had left her after she arrived in the U.S., and she was raising her son alone on very little income from odd jobs — surviving, barely.

Most people applying to programs like that have wrecked credit: no savings, card debt they can't pay off, work and life both a mess, stuck in a loop that doesn't end. Caseworkers evaluate applicants and offer counseling, and when they looked at her file they found something strange. Her credit score was excellent. She genuinely had no money — her earning power was limited and that was that — but she had a long history of opening cards, and even a small balance sitting in her bank account.

So Planet Money tracked her down. She walked them through it: how she worked the promotional offers, borrowed from one card to cover a bill she couldn't pay, always paid it off on time, always closed the card afterward. She used the timing gaps between different cards to plug cash shortfalls that had no other solution. The thing she was proudest of was using one card's offer to take her son on a vacation — a hotel, a resort area, free. Saving for that on her own income would have been a fantasy.

Asked about coming to America and how hard it had been, she said it was all worth it. Her own options were limited, life was tough, but by working the assistance programs carefully she'd gotten her son into school, and he was going to do better than she had.

The chart that stayed with me

Elsewhere in the museum you'll find the Dow Jones Industrial Average charted across the whole twentieth century, 1900 to 2000.

Which is a good place to ask why all that motivational garbage — earn 8% a year and in N years you'll be a millionaire — deserves your suspicion. In capital markets, risk and return move together. Leverage magnifies both. How you manage risk is the thing that determines whether you actually come out ahead over a long stretch.

Look at that line, the peaks and the troughs. (Yes, the index only covers a sliver of the market, but the shape of the lesson holds.) You buy a few stocks, you make money in a short window, you put in more — is 8% a year really something you can count on, every year, forever? People who pile in on a hunch, chasing whatever's hot, tend to end up holding the bag with nothing left to dig out with.

But stretch the horizon and the economy does grow. And money parked in a savings account at near-zero interest, losing to inflation, is money quietly shrinking. So the choice, in the end, is to get into the market or put your money into building something.

So what do you actually invest in?

The museum lays out the menu.

Stocks. You believe a company is going to grow, so you buy a piece of it and share in the growth and the dividends.

Bonds. You lend money to a company or a government and collect interest.

Mutual funds. Most people don't have the time or the expertise to work the market themselves, so you pay a fee, pick a fund matching some set of criteria, and hand the money to professionals. The fund buys stocks, bonds, derivatives; the returns get split between you and the manager.

Money market funds. Low risk, and correspondingly low return — generally treated as the stable, boring option.

If you only have a little money, none of this earns you much in the short run. If you have a lot, the same percentages start looking meaningful. On why the size of your principal matters so much: remember the news a while back about the European Central Bank holding rates negative. Say you're a large company or a very wealthy person with an enormous pile of cash. If markets look terrible and investing means losing money, the maximally conservative move is just to sit on it — the rate is basically nothing, but you have so much principal that parking a portion of it to hedge your risk still throws off something.

Then the rate goes negative. An ordinary person can pull their cash out and put it in a safe at home. If you're sitting on a fortune, withdrawal becomes a genuine logistical problem — where would you even put it, how would you move it? So the negative rate effectively becomes a fee you pay the bank. Which is the entire point: it forces that money to move, to go somewhere else, to get at least partly back into circulation.

Hedge funds. As I said, when you're playing with large sums over long horizons, one of the central questions is how you manage risk. Hedge funds are the opposite pole from the low-risk-low-return approach: large, lightly regulated pools of capital running on elaborate theories and complicated techniques, leaning hard on the leverage available through derivatives, taking on high risk in pursuit of high returns.

Take the train about forty minutes north of Manhattan and you reach Greenwich, a coastal town in Connecticut — America's hedge fund capital, and one of its most beautiful, most livable, wealthiest small towns. If you want to know what the idealized American town looks like, Greenwich is probably the reference specimen.

Out the door: the Exchange

A few steps from the museum stands the New York Stock Exchange. I went at Christmas last year, and there was an enormous tree out front, which felt appropriate somehow.

After the panic of 1792, New York State stopped protecting trading done in public spaces. So twenty-four brokers gathered under a buttonwood tree in Manhattan and signed an agreement among themselves, creating a private venue for trading stocks. In 1817 the signers of that Buttonwood Agreement took the next step and formally established the New York Stock Exchange — laying the foundation for everything New York became.

Bulls and bears

Everyone knows the Charging Bull. You go to Wall Street, you give it a rub, you hope some bull-market luck comes off on you.

The museum has a companion piece: a sculpture called Bull and Bear. It used to sit outside a traders' Luncheon Club, so brokers walked past it every day on their way to the floor.

As for where the metaphor comes from, one early theory points to how the animals fight: the bull tosses its horns upward, the bear swipes downward with its paw — two forces locked against each other. In the nineteenth century, "bulls" and "bears" referred to the traders powerful enough to move the market themselves. Now a bull market means a rising one, and bullish traders are the ones betting on it; a bear market means a falling one, and bearish traders are the ones who see it coming.

Federal Hall, and why the capital left

Around the corner from the Exchange is Federal Hall, with Washington's statue out front. This is where he was sworn in as the first president, and where the first Congress convened in 1789. In the earliest days of the republic this was the federal government's office building, and New York was the temporary capital.

So why did everything move to Washington? For that we need Alexander Hamilton — the first Secretary of the Treasury, and a man with a great deal to do with this museum.

The museum's address, 48 Wall Street, was previously the home of the first bank in New York, the Bank of New York, which Hamilton founded. There's a room in one corner dedicated to him: the Alexander Hamilton Room.

For a while my commute took me through the Theater District, past the theaters lining 46th Street. One of them, the Richard Rodgers, had a glowing marquee and a line out the door every single evening — that was Hamilton, the hip-hop musical based on his life.

Hip-hop was born in the Bronx, so making the musical hip-hop rather than European-classical was an obvious selling point; that part didn't surprise me. What I didn't understand until I'd walked through this exhibit was how much material they had to work with. Hamilton's own life is jaw-dropping. With a backstory like that, I came out determined to find cheap tickets eventually, just to see how they'd fused something as heavy as finance, politics, and constitutional history into rap, of all things.

The man himself

Hamilton was born in the West Indies. His mother died, his father abandoned him, and he was left an orphan taken in by relatives, working as an apprentice keeping books while he was still a kid. Opening chapter on the highest difficulty setting.

His turning point was his writing. An article he published in a local paper made enough of an impression that a group of wealthy locals sponsored him to go study in New York — at King's College, the institution that became Columbia, where his statue still stands.

Around the time he was finishing up, the Boston Tea Party happened, and Britain sent troops to bring the unruly colonies to heel. New York was the first place the guns opened up. Hamilton put down the pen, joined the Revolution, raised an artillery company, was elected its captain, and eventually became aide-de-camp to Commander-in-Chief Washington, who trusted him deeply.

After the war he was chosen as a New York delegate, went into law, founded the Bank of New York, helped draft the new Constitution, and wrote a great many influential essays explaining and defending it — which is how it got ratified. Washington made him Secretary of the Treasury.

In 1789 the brand-new country had an empty treasury, enormous debts, and credit on the verge of collapse. Hamilton proposed a package of measures, and under his program the long-accumulated debt was gradually resolved, the nation's financial and credit systems were rebuilt, and a functioning fiscal administration was established — solving the chaos at the root.

His program had roughly five pieces: a unified national debt market; a banking system anchored by a central bank; a unified system of coinage; a tax system built on tariffs and excise taxes; and a set of financial and trade policies designed to encourage manufacturing.

Congress rejected his debt plan four times. So Hamilton arranged a meeting with Thomas Jefferson, then Secretary of State, to look for support. Over dinner, they cut a deal: if Hamilton could get New York to back putting the capital in the South rather than in New York, they wouldn't fight his bill too hard in Congress. That political compromise got the proposal through a few days later. The American debt market took off, and became one of the load-bearing pillars of the country's whole financial and monetary system.

[Image: a 1945 U.S. war bond featuring Disney cartoon characters.]

What Hamilton understood

He saw the essence of finance clearly: it is a playing field for the magic of belief. A person can trade on credit to get other people's resources and build something. A company can trade on credit to get resources and expand. And a country with the highest credit in the world can draw on global capital and global resources to grow its own economy.

It's also an arena. Who are the real players and who is bluffing? When is the tide turning? Can you put your resources into the right thing at the right moment and come out ahead?

Hamilton himself died in a duel with a political rival. He's buried not far from here, in the churchyard at Trinity Church. Walk past Federal Hall, head west, and it's right at the intersection — worth stepping inside, it's beautiful, and sometimes there's a choir singing.

The last exhibit

When you've made it through all the galleries and drift into the museum shop, you'll find a toilet made of gold.

The day I was there, a cluster of young Wall Street interns in suits and skirt suits were milling around it, and they asked me to take their group photo in front of it. Every one of them was grinning, radiating that particular high-spirited confidence, and there it was, frozen.

I pressed the shutter and had the strange sensation of watching the curtain go up on their lives — that they were about to walk out onto this stage, into this market full of magic, and find out what it's like to be tested by a double-edged sword made of belief.

This essay is personal analysis and general education, not individualized financial advice.